Market and external scenarios

Thinking ahead possible future market environments

To predict the future is an old dream of human beings, which could not be accomplished even by the most sophisticated prognosis systems of any company. With the increase of complexity and change, companies face the question how their market, their industry and their environment will look like in the future. With the help of future scenarios the different possibilities are systematically elaborated and connected in a space of possibilities. The scenario development process comprises four phases:

• The choice of key factors (Phase 1): The considered topics are arranged in system levels and spheres of influence. Within the spheres of influence concrete key factors can be determined. Based on the evaluation of the mutual dependence of these factors with an influence analysis the key factors are determined, which shape the development of the future of this topic field.
• Development of future projections (Phase 2): For each key factor the possible future developments - the so called future projections - are determined. The future projections describe all strategically relevant, characteristic and qualitative development alternatives for every single key factor.
• Combination of the future projections to scenarios (Phase 3): Scenarios are concise presentations of possible alternative futures. Their creation is based on the determination of consistent combinations of future projections. As a result three to six alternative future images arise, which widely cover the space of possibilities. Afterwards, these "raw scenarios" are transformed in the way that they can be used by the former identified target group for the communication of future development possibilities.
• Strategic interpretation of the future space (Phase 4): The development of scenarios is being followed by a strategic interpretation: Who are the winners and losers? What are the driving forces behind the development of a scenario? What are the indicators that alert early the occurrence of a scenario? This phase achieves not only the consolidation of results, but also prepares the use of scenarios in the strategic planning process.

The type of scenario development - Scenario project or Scenario conference - is determined by our clients. ScMI AG holds in the process a coaching role. The most important aspects of the scenarios are resolved by the client or by third parties identified together with ScMI AG. The target-oriented use of our scenario software supports the process of scenario development, however, without dominating it. In addition to the methodical experience from over 200 different scenario developments ScMI AG delivers into the process alternative future trends from general theme fields as well as overall industries perceptions.