Scenario technique fundamentals
The Scenario Technique basically deals with thinking ahead and analyzing possible future developments. In that context, scenarios provide an intellectual framework for experiencing the future driven by both empiricism/ analysis and creativity/ intuition. The analysis itself is either carried out with reference to complementary and extreme (best-/ worts case) or particularly relevant/ characteristic scenarios. Moreover, scenarios are distinguished according to the criterion of steerability in environmental and strategic scenarios.
Originally, the Scenario Technique was elaborated for military purposes but meanwhile, it serves as decision support method relating to various economic and social questions such as technological and environmental development or business models. Making use of the Scenario Technique means getting one’s orientation with regard to future developments. The Scenario Technique may, furthermore, be applied to strategy development and controlling as well as to early detection processes.
The method of Scenario-Management, in comparison, is an integrated approach towards future planning. It comprises the systematic creation and application of scenarios in order to identify and exploit potential benefits.