What about Eastern Europe’s future economic importance -as marketplace, energy supplier and as economic actor? How stable will this area be? What will the relationship between Russia and the EU look like? What about Eastern Europe’s future economic importance -as marketplace, energy supplier and as economic actor? How stable will this area be? What will the relationship between Russia and the EU look like? Which way will the Eastern European countries orient themselves? Which part of Eastern Europe will belong to the EU and in how will that affect the progress of the entire EU?

The development of the focussed region is characterized by uncertainty. Consequently, thinking ahead its long-term capabilities by means of scenarios is evident. It needs to be kept in mind that it is not the intention of the ScMI AG to depict the precise future in terms of a prognosis. In fact, an intellectual framework is created, which enables decision makers to run through the consequences of different options and thus, prepare for the future.

The scenario creation process involves the challenge of equilibrating a comprehensive perspective on the one and an adequately specific point of view on the other hand. Consistently, the scenarios for Eastern Europe cover the development of both individual sub- regions such as the current EU member states and specific regions such as the Balkans and Caucasus. At the same time, they do not relate to unique developments of single countries (besides Russia).
On the whole, six future mappings arose during the scenario process:

• Scenario 1: From the Atlantic to the Ural. The entire eastern part of Europe benefits  from the new triad “EU-Russia-USA”.
• Scenario 2: The expanded EU as a shield concerning the conflict with Russia. “Successful Model EU” from Lisbon to Crimea.
• Scenario 3: Closed function. Consolidated EU is self-sufficient.
• Scenario 4: Europe as loser – even Eastern Europe falls behind. Persistent stagnation, low level of acceptance of the EU and high dependence on Russia.
• Scenario 5: The West decouples. Desintegration of the EU and relapse of Eastern Europe.
• Scenario 6: Return to the Russian harbour. The new iron curtain on the bow.

For further information with regard to the results please do not hesitate to contact us. Here you can find a summary of the scenario report.