Scenario Study - Germany 2030

Germany 2030 - a map of the future

Taking a look in the media, you get the feeling that Germany is climbing from crisis to crisis - it is driving by sight, often without a common goal. What is missing are pictures of possible futures worth living in. Instead, they often offer a "Keep it up! - but earlier generations have already thought so. And then everything turned out quite differently. Future blindness gambles away opportunities. The potential is in Germany. Therefore on initiative of Klaus Burmeister and Beate Schulz Monday of foresightlab the open SOURCE project D2030 ("Germany 2030") was initiated, whose goal is a durable discourse over the future of Germany in Europe in the world. The basis for this are scenarios and a map of the future, in the development of which ScMI AG was intensively involved as a methodical partner. The scenarios and the resulting key questions were presented at a future conference in Berlin-Neukölln in July 2017.


The map of the future shows eight scenarios, each based on 33 key factors whose development options were expressed by two or more dimensions. The analysis of this complex network first identified two main axes, which can be explained on the basis of two core questions: Core question 1: What is Germany's attitude to change and its willingness to cooperate globally? Core question 2: What significance do sustainability and civic engagement have in Germany? Linking these two main axes four basic scenarios are resulting: (1) Acceleration on track, (2) New horizons, (3) Conscious decoupling and (4) Old borders.

 

The first two basic scenarios are each described in more detail by three (sub-) scenarios. This results in a total of eight scenarios for the future of Germany:

  •  Acceleration on track - unstoppable descent (scenario 1A)
  • Acceleration on track - splitting despite economic success (scenario 1B)
  • Acceleration on track - well-being prosperity (Scenario 1C)
  • New Horizons - Room for Civil Society (Scenario 2A)
  • New Horizons - Strength through Diversity (Scenario 2B)
  • New Horizons - Renaissance of Politics (Scenario 2C)
  • Conscious decoupling (scenario 3)
  • Old borders (scenario 4)

These eight scenarios are "thinking tools", to which neither probabilities nor statements about their desirability are assigned. This is the only way to stimulate to follow new paths of thought.

Further information concerning the initiative D2030 you can find here.



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