Finance crises forecasted in 2003

The question while analysing worldwide finance crise is, could it have been forecasted early?

ScMI says like every scenario planner would: Exactly forecasting is not possible but thinking ahead possible consequences was.

ScMI refers to scenarios of the future of global financial markets which were developed 2002/2003 within a project of the European academy of science and arts (EASA). During this process six possible future developments resulted. They discribed:

Scenario I: The corporate world - Industrialised states dominate and promote the economic development using the global financial market
Scenario II: Freedom that is none - The escalation of the location competition between regions leads to the division of the industrialised countries
Scenario III: The flood lifts all boats - International organisations secure free movement of capital and provide equal participation in growth
Scenario IV: Parallel worlds – The global civil society as reinsurance of the deregulated and unstable markets
Scenario V: Sustainable growth – The global regulation of the financial markets secures long-term growth
Scenario VI: Deglobalisation - Slowdown of the global economy due to a new work culture

The scenarios are published in the book "Wie wir wirtschaften werden" from Stefan Brunnhuber and Harald Klimenta. ScMI also offers a short scenario description which you can order here.


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