International Conference for Scenario Management

Tags: Scenario-Management, Conference, Shell, BMW, military, Bertelsmann-Foundation
19th May, 2009
How to deal with an unsecure future was the crucial question at the 6th international conference for scenario management on the 13th of May,2009.

“We need methods for overcoming insecurities and proving our assumption about the future”, said Karl Rose (Chief Strategist Shell International Ltd.), who joined the conference via video broadcast from Den Haag. “The most important decisions depend on our assumptions about the future”, said Rose. For more than 40 years, Shell has been making use of the scenario methodology in order to review and optimize their strategies. All participants agreed to the importance of the development of scenarios. Dr. Josef Kruse (Rheinmetall Defence) and Kester Kleinert (Sparkasse Bremen) use the methodology in their companies for developing future robust strategies and ultimately for remaining competitive. Colonel. Dr. Thomas Will (center for transformation of the military) and Dr. Rainer Feurer presented their approaches in future analysis. Additionally, Klaus Windhagen (Deutsche Papierfabrik) reported on the collaborative development of scenarios by competitors of one industry.

During the conference the participants received an extensive insight into scenario and strategy development of companies and public institutions as well as suggestions for their individual coping with their future. This is also what the organizer of the conference, the Scenario Management International AG (ScMI), aimed to achieve. In this year they are celebrating their decennial existence. The chairmen Dr. Alexander Fink and Dr. Andreas Siebe were truly impressed by the interest in scenario management- especially in unstable times of crisis. The companies seem to have understood that though operative risk management is necessary, it is insufficient for having a really successful future.

Dr. Meier, chairman of the Bertelsmann foundation, went one step further and asked for the future viability of society and politics. His solutions are the implementation of extended methods, inclusion of citizens but above all a jointly working against the anxiety about the future. Underlining the meaning of his words he ended his talk with a quote of Willy Brandt: “The best way to predict the future is to invent it”.


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