The future development of the EU, the course of the new US president Donald Trump and especially the development of conflict in the Middle East are decisive factors for our security.
This is a conclusion, which the Austrian Federal Ministry of Defense and Sports draws in the latest issue of its magazine FOKUS.
In this article, Generalmajor Dr. Johann Frank, Head of the Directorate for Security Policy, points out the importance of a strategic foresight: "The essential criterion of any successful security policy is a comprehensive strategic perspective and the best possible preparation for future developments. It is crucial for decision-makers to become familiar with the most urgent challenges of the future in a timely and objective manner before a crisis arises and limits the scope for reflection."
The "Security Policy Yearly Preview" and the current issue of the magazine FOKUS present the current trend scenario. In this scenario, key factors relevant to the Austrian security policy were identified within a system analysis and analyzed with regard to their future development possibilities. This is a consistent further development of the trend scenarios of the past few years.At the same time, it is based on extensive preliminary work of the Directorate for Security Policy in 2011, where, together with ScMI AG, external and strategic scenarios - so-called profile variants, were developed. Now the illustration of the trend scenario from a 2011 perspective shows how the current development moves out of the expectation area and how this trend continues in the most plausible development path in the future. Directorate for Security Policy in 2011 (present space) and represents a consistent further development of the trend scenarios of the past years.Here, The EU remains in a current stagnation mode, but can avoid further disintegration. Moreover, the NATO remains functionally at its core, whereas the USA is putting high emphasis on more self-responsibility of the allies. However, the security policy perspective also describes two alternative development paths - a core Europe with European defense integration, as well as a worst case with a loss of functioning of the NATO and an increasing disintegration of the EU.
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