Module "Future management"

From scenarios to precise planning

Future Management is about interlocking future and strategy. This takes place at three levels: At the strategic level the enterprise decides on its vision. At the tactical level the transformation of the vision into a business model and concrete road maps takes place. These guidelines are then implemented in the form of precise planning at the operational level. Future development must be considered at all three levels, however, this occurs through different instruments:

• At the operative level it is necessary to get at short notice a as clear as possible picture of the future. Therefore, the main instruments here are quantitative and prognoses which are based on extrapolations.
• At the tactical level this definition of the future does not suffice anymore or firms simply can not afford it at this level. Here, upcoming medium-term changes or those already recognizable must be identified in the form of trends and be considered in decisions.
  
• At the strategic level a simple trend observation is also not sufficient any more. At this level, the interactions of the different factors and trends have to be considered. This makes scenarios the central foresight instrument at this level.

The one-day workshop "Future Management" is combinable as an additional module with the different scenario formats
(One-Day Intensive Workshop, Two-Day Compact Seminar or Three-Day Intensive Seminar). Here the 3-Level-Model of the future management is explained and the essential instruments of the different levels are explicated and deepened.

The methods examined on the basis of the "Handbook Future Management" are:
Scenarios: Scenario Planning, scenario technique, interactions scenarios (cross-impact analysis), narrative scenarios / science fiction, scenario management.
Visions: strategy options / strategy scenarios, mission statements, participative search for vision.
Trends: trend research / trend management, wildcards, issue management, system dynamics / simulations and micro worlds, cross-linking analysis / influence analysis, stakeholder analysis.
Road maps: balanced scorecard / strategy maps, technology roadmapping, strategy roadmapping, wargaming, brainstorming.
Prognoses: time series prognosis, econometric model, curves, cycles and historical analogies, expert questionings, Delphi method.
Planning: business plan / business case, decision-making under certainty, uncertainty analysis / real options, risk management / early warning systems, crisis management / continuity management.