Wednesday, 25 February 2009 16:07
Crises are not only difficult because of tough decisions to be made. They also represent structural and strategic turning points. Scenario Management is one way to manage those problematic situations. On the one hand the method makes it possible to predict upcoming crises and on the other hand it helps to survive them.
The retrospective shows that companies which try to anticipate possible future problems instead of only dealing with the current operative work survive crises best and emerge even invigorated. That is why it is important to toroughly understand a crisis, to think ahead its possible courses and to keep in mind the aftermath as well. It is all about not acting without using ones brain but thinking through all action alternatives and therefore finding ones way through and out of the crisis.
Unfortunately a crisis rarely allows room to strategic projects. But periods of crises are usually accompanied by turning points and structural interruptions that require strategic decisions.
One way to resolve that dilemma is a dense project being composed of three steps:
- Step 1: Depicting courses of crises and the situations in the aftermath
- Step 2: Thinking through the available options systematically with regard to possible courses of the crises
- Step 3: Making the strategic impetus crisis-proof
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