During the last years the pressure on maritime industries in Europe has increased significantly. By now more than 80 percent of worldwide ship production takes place in highly subsidized South-Korea and Japan. But the EU heavily dependent on these industries and they in return play a decisive role in forming Europe’s economic and social future. Yet strong competition and often the struggle for survival characterise the actions of many companies. In this situation innovative solutions are in need rather than preserving and improving the existing ones. To address this need for innovative solution finding ScMI AG created together with EVIMAR, the first pan-European "virtual institute" for the maritime, a set of five future scenarios to describe plausible developments of the European short sea shipping (non bulk) market. They show five possible directions whereto this market might head in the next 10-15 years. In short the essence reads as follows: Scenarios I and II describe two possible futures where short sea shipping fully enfolds its inherent growth potentials. They differ mainly in the economic-political framework with scenario I has a fully liberalised market while scenario II is a world where the success of short sea shipping is based on strong political support by the EU. Opposite to this the scenarios III and IV show two worlds where short sea shipping faces severe problems to survive economical within the transportation industry. Analogous to the two previous scenarios they differentiate in their economical and political framework. Eventually Scenario V holds a future that stands in between these two extremes where short sea shipping has a definite chance to expand but is threatened by its own structural problems.

For more information about the principles of Scenario-Management and to see an example how to create and use scenarios in practice you can click here to download the set of EVIMAR global maritime scenarios.

The "European Virtual Maritime Institute" EVIMAR is the first pan-European "virtual institute" to serve a specific industry, and is supported by the European commission. Its breadth of expertise and geographical coverage enables the provision of practical holistic solutions to complex economical and technological challenges facing the maritime industries now and in the future.

As a leading partner of the EVIMAR company ScMI AG takes a main part in organizing and conducting this highly recommendable Copenhagen conference.

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