During the last years, the pressure on the airline industry has increased significantly. For many years, if not decades, the number of airline customers and flights in the airline industry increased. This is why the airlines mostly focused their strategies on growth, which consequently meant that aircraft manufacturers were used to a relatively stable demand for their products. Therefore the international and the regional airports concentrated on the expansion of their capacities. ScMI AG used the internationally acknowledged method of Scenario-Management to outline possible futures of the civil air traffic. The broad knowledge about the air traffic industry was brought in by Franz Tessun, a Partner of ScMI AG and former vice-president of Knowledge and Scenario Management at EADS/Daimler-Chrysler Aeropace (DASA). The air traffic industry and its environment was described with the help of 54 influence factors. Using a network analysis, 21 key factors which are characteristic for the development of the industry were selected. With regard to the consistency of the alternative future projections that were developed for each key factor, 5 alternative scenarios resulted for the year 2020 and can be outlined as follows:

• Overall growth in a long-distance dominated air traffic with sharp concentration in the manufacturing industry
• Split of industry and high growth in regional aviation
• Overall growth in an industry segmented in independent long and short-distance segments
• All-round airlines dominate the industry and use small carriers as feeders
• Low-growth industry with focus on exclusive long-distance, high-service air traffic.
  

These 5 scenarios show the basic different possible developments in the area of civil air traffic. Scenarios developed on the basis of the method of Scenario-Management are based on plausible combinations of future projections. In the first place, they do not contain any statement about the directions of development which the respective scenario might take.

In order to be able to estimate these directions of development, ScMI AG is currently executing a survey to identify the tendencies of different trends, future projections and scenarios as well as the respective imminent opportunities and risks.

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