The outbreak and the progression of the global financial and economic crisis led to a profound  feeling of uncertainty  both in economy, politics and society. Many companies, organizations and governments realized the need to think ahead
possible courses of development. The Scenario Technique is one possible tool to analyse these optional developments. In fact scenarios differ remarcaby from predictions not describing the expected future but several conceivable futures. Mainly they are instruments that support the preparation for all imaginable eventualities. 

Within the last months those scenarios were developed by numerous renowned financial and economic research institutes to depict possible courses of the financial and economic crisis. In doing so they put their emphasis on distinct target groups. The ScMI AG analysed those scenarios and interrelated them with the help of their Scenario-Management-Technique  as well as their Scenario-Software. That resulted in eight extensive scenarios summarizing the latest state of knowledge. The range of  the presented futures stretches from a new period of growth without significant change of the structures of world trade (Scenario 1) all the way to a global economic ”Tsunami” accompagnied by the danger of global capital writedowns (Scenario 8).   

According to Alexander Fink – director of the Scenario Management International AG (ScMI)- a considerable advantage of the available scenarios is that not only extremes but also nuances and further key factors have been elaborated. The second scenario for example anticipates a rapid transition to a multilateral world economic system whereas the third scenario forsees a lengthy crisis before that development.The fourth scenario in contrast describes  a more powerful role of the public sector.    
Looking at the more pessimistic scenarios the developments range from a market economy that persists in a state of shock (Scenario 5) and a rapid shift of the world`s economic power to Asia (Scenario 6) up to an enduring recession with strong elements of govenmental capitalism (Scenario 7).   

”Considering the outcomes it becomes clear that the distinct institutes have different points of view concerning the crisis” comments his colleague Andreas Siebe approvingly. Whereas purely economic institutes focus on the course of the crisis, futurologists and trend analysts work on the question what the world might look like in the aftermath. “Every scenario is justified” he complements “It rather is up to us to unite the different perspectives to give an overview.” Consequently, the ScMI AG makes use of ist range of instruments to create a “future mapping“ from the future sketches of the different institutes.
Have a glance at the company’s cross refrence listing and you will see that the ScMI AG has made  a look into he future possible for various companies and organisations.  Among them the majority of the dax corporations and furthermore institutions like the German Armed Forces, the Federal Crime Police Ofice and the Austrian National Bank. The ScMI AG was already dealing with the future of the global financial markets in the years from 2001 to 2003 while being entrusted with the methodical leadership of an interdisciplinary team of the European Academy of Sciences and Arts (EASA). At that time the scenario management sifted out six possible future developments that scretched from heavy deregulation to restriction of capital mobility. Five scenarios out six included significant banking crises. So only one scenario depicted financial markets resistant to crises. “Global regulation of the financial markets secures enduring economic growth” was the title of that innovative scenario.