The European tourism market undergoes a drastic change process. Almost all suppliers – from travel agencies, hotels and hostels and transportation companies to leisure facilities – are affected by the changes. Most of the questions about the future cannot be answered with one clear response only. The complexity and change in the tourism sector can be comprehended by linking various development opportunities and ultimately creating few coherent scenarios. In this manner companies acquire orientation knowledge and a general understanding of the future and are thus being able to develop future-robust and flexible strategies.

ScMI AG has used its method Szenario-Management ™  in order to design the possible development perspectives of tourism in Europe. They are based on the analysis of 79 influencing factors from which 19 key factors have been extracted. The combination of 78 alternative future projections provided as an end result five different consistent scenarios:

• Scenario I: Price competition results in a crisis of the tourism industry
• Scenario II: Price sensitivity leads to new business models and a revival of package holidays
• Scenario III: Tourism becomes a growth market and satisfies the need for regeneration in the stress-society
• Scenario IV: Tourism becomes a growth market and benefits from the adventuresome leisure society
• Scenario V: Powerful customers require quality at low prices and push the tourism industry forward
  

The scenario report can be ordered by the ScMI AG for a nominal charge of 49,- Euro. It will be delivered in german.