With every year social networks gain more users. At the end of 2009, 26 million people in Germany have registered in social networks. However, in the world wide comparison, Germany is average. Besides public awareness regarding increased numbers of users and new business models, criticism concerning data- and consumer protection is emerging as well. But still, its relevance as a mouthpiece is increasing which also means that politicians and corporations need to adjust themselves to this development.

The development of social networks depends on a variety of factors. Hence, the future of the numbers of networks and its focus on special target groups, the future of business models of the providers as well as the way of managing and dealing with users is uncertain.

To find answers, a scenario project called “The future of social networks in the Internet” was carried out in the network XING, within the group “scenario - techniqe and strategic early warning“. Six scenarios were developed which present different futures: First it is imaginable to experience a further increase of the success of online networks – for the private as well as the business sector or only with a focus on special theme-networks or an increase as entertainment platforms only. On the other side, it is possible to note a declined internet usage accompanied with a rising lack of interest regarding the virtual world. 

At the moment all directions of developments could be possible. However, the evaluation of the scenarios shows a distinct tendency to a further increase of importance of online networks. But because of the uncertainty and high complexity of the surrounding environment of networks, trends and signals need to be observed in order to estimate the direction of development of social networks. The successful usage - whether by companies, politics or the society - depends on the right estimation.

The whole documentation (currently only available in German) can be downloaded here.