One of the central social topics in Germany is the future of the welfare state. For some time this subject is discussed and considered. On the one hand proper by a political discourse and on the other hand by the academic domain and a wide political publication. The question of the existence as well as shape of a societal and political consencous imagination of the future of the welfare state was in the focus. Therefore, the Bertelsmann foundation, the Heinz Nixdorf foundation and the Ludwig Erhard foundation as well as more than 30 young politicians of the German Bundestag and the state parliament plus miscellaneous decision preparer were invited to a collective scenario conference in Dresden.

The aim of the scenario conference (namely “Young politicians for an altering society – Our welfare state in the year 2030”) was to design a generally picture of the future, how our welfare state could look like in the year 2030. The scenario management method was used to develop scenarios. First 19 key factors have been identified and future projections have been forecasted. Due to the consistent combination of the projections six scenarios emerge:

• The overwhelmed society in the downward spiral (scenario 1)
• The dynamic welfare state as a safe haven (scenario 2)
• The dynamic and sustainable civic society (scenario 3)
• The weak state with strong businesses and strong relevance to families (scenario 4)
• The vernissage society (scenario 5)
• The sedate “now”-society (scenario 6)

These six scenarios were visualized in a future space mapping. During the conference the participants evaluated the scenarios, whereas the today’s welfare state was located between scenario 1 and 2 – with a definite tendency towards scenario 1.

The majority of the conference participants estimated a development towards more individual responsibility. This is shown by the fact, that the “Vernissage society” (scenario 5) was identified as the most probable scenario.

Nevertheless – and this must be characterised as the maybe most remarkable result of the conference – the participants of the conference agreed concerning the demand of a desirable future of a welfare state: the dynamical civic society was reflected in the ideal of the german welfare state in the year 2030.

Further details to the results of the scenario conference could be found in:
Avenarius, Moritz / Hackenberg, Helga / Vehrkamp, Robert B. / Witte, Kirsten: Der Sozialstaat im demographischen Wandel -  Ergebnisse einer Szenario-Konferenz zur Zukunft des Sozialstaates in: Stephan A. Jansen, Birger P. Priddat, Nico Stehr (Hrsg.):Demographie - Bewegungen einer Gesellschaft im Ruhestand; VS VERLAG FÜR SOZIALWISSENSCHAFTEN, November 2005, S. 145-184