of our groceries”. A team of experts dealt with the subject of different value chains of the food product industry and its possible developments in the future. At the same time they identified key factors that have a central impact on the future of our groceries.
At the end of the scenario process, seven different scenarios have been identified, whereas the probability of occurrence differs depending on the development of the surrounding conditions:
- Regionalisation as a global method of resolution (Scenario 1A): In this first scenario of sustainability, a combination of local products and wide innovations in technology and processes are drivers of a regionalised world.
- Turning away from the industrialized finishing (Scenario 1B): In this second scenario of sustainability, changed customer needs lead to a return to regionalism - and ultimately also to an intensification of the global supply situation through the emergence of further conflicts.
- Low priced and Convenient (Scenario 2): Here, convenience products allow to maintain the traditional eating habits due to reduced cooking time - the act of preparing meals takes a back seat. This permits a larger freedom for other activities and allows at the same time the possibility to solve global alimentary problems.
- Limitless variety- individualised consumption with pleasure (Scenario 3): In this scenario the individuals are guided by their individual values – with diverse food products at different points of the day.
- Renaissance of self-supply (Scenario 4): In this scenario a separation of society appears, followed by the economisation of various societal processes resulting in an industrial engaged increase in price and a massive loss of faith of the individuals. This leads to a significant return to manual preparation of food.
- Triumph of individual fast-food (Scenario 5): In this future the traditional rhythms of alimentation diminish and the individual oriented persons acquaint themselves with various fast-food products as a low-priced alternative.
- Standardized sector of public utilities (Scenario 6): Here the globalisation is brought to a standstill leading to a decline of prosperity and a significant supply shortfall. Meanwhile the working life is getting more intense which fosters the evolvement of carry on food and take away goods, resulting in a low cost alimentation supply.
With the help of the definition and weighting of the different key factors three different paths of expected development can be described:
- Sustainability: The consumer will be more concerned about sustainability, meaning that social criteria as well as environmental and health aspects will play a larger role when it comes to the choice of products.
- Regionalisation: The wish to buy regional products will amplify.
- Convenience: In order to maintain the traditional eating habits in a society with limited time to cook and also reduced cooking proficiency, various new products (above all convenience products) will develop.
Apart from the three expected paths of development, two other paths of risks can be identified. On the one hand a decline of security and on the other hand global supply shortfalls.
To get further information about the scenario methodology feel free to contact us. Moreover, if you are interested in reading the whole scenario study please do not hesitate to get in touch with us.