“Not being carried away by the mainstream but pointing out plausible paths of development.” Eight companies committed themselves to this as guiding principle for their joint elaboration of scenarios with regard to mobility in urban areas in the year 2030.

The ScMI AG supported the project attended by the Hamburg Association of Transport Companies, the Innovation Centre in Lower Saxony, the Lower Saxony Logistics Initiative, the MAN Nutzfahrzeuge AG, the METRO AG, the Deutsche Post DHL Market Research Service Centre, the Rhine-Main Association of Transport Companies and the Siemens AG.

The scenario study depicts the imaginable changes in the mobility environment of German conurbations. These range from a total gridlock to a complex network of different carriers and severe changes in the public’s attitude towards mobility. “The German conurbations are faced with considerable structural changes which they definitely need to deal with -vigorously and in good time.” summarizes Dr. Alexander Fink (ScMI board member). He furthermore points to the (from today’s perspective) relatively improbable scenarios to pay particular attention to as they are potential keys to future success.

The scenario development is based on 86 influence factors identified in the beginning. After the selection of  23 key influence factors, their various development options were combined to 188 Trillion conceivable  futures. Finally, these have been condensed to seven scenarios illustrating possible developments of mobility in German conurbations:

• Total Gridlock (Scenario 1): This scenario is characterized by a weak position of the public transport. Even the private transport approaches its limits as it is based on traditional vehicles.

• Back to the Roads (Scenario 2): In this case, the public transport is weakened due to the conurban expansion, of which the private transport takes advantage offering a range of innovations.
  

Each of the following three scenarios depict a future, in which the public transport is of major importance. They are differentiated between according to the criterion of conurban development:

• Growth of the Suburbs (Scenario 3): The urban areas are particularly growing along their edges, which results in to efficient cooperation of private and public transport.

• Broad Growth of the Conurbations (Scenario 4): Growth in general is typical of that scenario, in which well-directed control is necessary to link private and public transport.

• Growth of the Centres (Scenario 5): In this scenario, the urban centres are considerably attractive. Therefore, the citizens frequently prefer the public transport to their own car.
  

The two remaining scenarios are characterized by a drop in conurban mobility:

• Rejection of Mobility (Scenario 6): A change in values leads towards a modification of local structures, less importance of pecuniary prosperity and to a decrease in (road and freight) traffic volume.

• New Business Models (Scenario 7): This scenario -just as scenario one- shows the public transport in a weak position. This time, in contrast, that cannot be put down to an infrastructural bottleneck but to a serious increase in the price of traditional mobility.
  

The whole scenario project embraced several lines of business and consequently reflects the participants’ various perspectives. The jointly elaborated future mapping for example illustrates and contrasts the different scenarios and supports their outward communication. Finally, the outcomes of the scenario study are now being integrated into the company specific strategic processes.

For a further insight into the results or the method of Scenario Management in general please do not hesitate to contact us. More scenario studies are available here.