Glossary E-H

E

Econometric models
Econometric models are developed in order to create multi-dimensional, quantitative predictions. They include the problem definition within a verbal model, its transfer in a formal model, the model calculation, as well as the interpretation of the model results.

F

Focussed Strategies
Focussed strategies are based on a scenario and are optimized for this future image. In addition, this strategy is combined with an intensive early warning and the flexibility of a strategy change, if the business environment changes.

Forecast
A forecast, as opposed to a prediction, is a statement which is connected to a probability, not implying that we believe in the occurrence. Therefore, several possibilities can be taken into account: "The weather forecast for tomorrow names a 50% likeliness of rain."

Future conference
Within a 3-day future conference - also "future search" -, commonly used in the USA, future images, respectively objective images are developed.

Future factory
A future factory is a participative approach of vision finding. It traces back to the german Robert Jungk and is used particularily in the public domain.

Future Horizon
The future horizon defines the point of time in the future for which possible developments are described by scenarios.

Future Mapping / Scenario Mapping
A future mapping (also: scenario mapping) is the visualisation of a set of scenarios by using statistic methods (e.g. multidimensional scaling) in order to describe the central interdependencies within the scenario field.

Future Matrix / Scenario Matrix
Within a future matrix or a scenario matrix market scenarios are opposed to strategy scenarios.

Future Projections
Future projections (also: trendprojections) describe alternative possibilities for development of an individual factor. Therefore, they are not called %quot;inflationrate" (=factor) but "price stability" (=projection). The identification of projections is part of the scenario process.

Future Warehouse
A future warehouse is an It-supported system of strategic foresight. Within this warehouse, company knowledge about future-relevant topics is identified, increased, processed and communicated.

Future-open thinking
Due to uncertainty within markets and industries as well as within technological and general environments the future is not being predicted exactly. Instead, several conceivable future images are devloped and described.

G

Growth Option Pipeline
Especially for companies active on capital markets, external growth expectations need to be expressed in the business planning. A "growth option pipeline" can be developed for this purpose. It describes which growth inititatives a company needs to realise in order to reach the expected growth rate within a medium-term planning period (e.g. 5 years).

H

Headstand technique
When applying the headstand technique the original problem is being turned around. Subsequently, solutions are developed which are in the end turned around again.

Historical Analogies
Historical analogies- analogy means: to be similar to each other - compare the present situation with the past and, therefore, forecast the future development.