Alexander Fink, Oliver Schlake
In: Gausemeier, Jürgen (Hrsg.): Die Szenario-Technik – Werkzeug für den Umgang mit einer multiplen Zukunft. Paderborner Szenario-Workshop am 14.11.1995. Band 7. Paderborn: NHI-Verlagsschriftenreihe
Eight scenarios for the future of the global world order. An open process with survey results of more than 200 experts from 65 countries.
Together with experts, we analyzed the topic of rural mobility from a variety of perspectives. This online scenario process has produced eight alternative visions of what mobility beyond the frequently considered metropolises might look like in the future.
In an open process, future scenarios and perspectives for the time after the Corona pandemic were developed together with more than 80 experts.
Digitization is a key driver of the future healthcare industry. The DayOne scenarios are about what the data-driven healthcare system of the future could look like.
Are cryptocurrencies more than just hype? And will they have a long-term effect on the banking and financial system? We have developed six scenarios that describe the future of cryptocurrencies.
What impact will digitization have on our city centers? How do city centers influence our quality of life? What about the issue of sustainability in society and what role will the city center take on in the future?
On behalf of the Bavarian State Ministry of Food, Agriculture and Forestry, the Nutrition Cluster, the Competence Center Nutrition (KErn) created scenarios for the future of the food industry after Corona and evaluated them against existing nutrition scenarios.
Artificial intelligence is one of the most important future trends, also in retail. But what will the development and spread of AI look like in the future? This is the question addressed by the current scenario study of the EHI Retail Institute.
In an open process, future scenarios and perspectives for the time after the corona pandemic were developed together with more than 80 experts.
ScMI and 10 partners created scenarios concerning the future of urban mobility in 2040. In addition, the eight resulting scenarios were evaluated in order to allow for an internal strategic usage.
Artificial intelligence is one of the most frequently discussed topics in politics, business and the media. In a scenario report prepared jointly with foresightlab for Fraunhofer-IAO, six scenarios were developed and evaluated by a group of experts.
The global motorcycle markets are changing. As part of its "Strategy 2030", BMW Motorrad therefore wondered what changes are to be expected and how shifts in market segments and market environments can be continuously monitored.
As part of a joint project, the furniture companies Germania, Pelipal, Sachsenküchen, Schoeller, Egger and Hettich created together with ScMI scenarios for the future of the domestic furniture industry.
On behalf of the Bavarian State Ministry of Food, Agriculture and Forestry, the Nutrition Cluster, the Nutrition Competence Centre (KErn) and a 17-member panel of experts drew up and evaluated scenarios for the future of the food industry and presented them at the "Future Days Lebensmittel".
Germany is on sight. It is high time for a discourse on the future role of Germany in Europe and the world. The Initiative D2030 has developed eight scenarios and a map of the future in a cross-party open source process - supported by ScMI AG.
Anyone who takes a product out of the shelf at the point-of-sale or happily opens the door to the parcel carrier will not always know what logistical processes are caused by the purchase decision or chosen delivery option. The uprising question is, how trade logistics could change in the future? How could store, transport or warehouse logistics look like in 2025?
armasuisse is the Competence Center for Procurement, Technology and Real Estate within the Federal Department of Defence, Civil Protection and Sport (DDPS).
The ship building and offshore world market is subject to strong cyclical fluctuations. In order to establish a long-term orientation, the VDMA working group, representing shipbuilders and offshore suppliers created various scenarios in a scenario conference.
As part of a project initiated by the German Federal Environmental Agency, scenarios were developed which shed light on the conditions for the national sustainability strategy and demonstrate sustainable strategic approaches for leisure, nutrition and housing.
As part of a joint project the Association of Woodwork together with the Furniture Industry of North Rhine Westphalia, comprising of; Hettich, Technocell Dekor, Egger and JAB Anstoetz, created six scenarios for the future of the domestic furniture industry.
Sport is a social, cross-sectional topic which goes far beyond just competitive and leisure sports. Topics such as health, media and entertainment as well as new business options were discussed in a scenario study where six possible futures were created for sports in Germany.
Within an integrated project, seven scenarios for "living together" in the year 2030 have been developed. These scenarios have long-term consequences for Generali Versicherungen,so that they have been published within a scenario study for internal employee communication.
Together with marketing managers for retail, media representatives and service providers the EHI Retail Institute has investigated the communication and shopping behaviors of future customers. The systematically identified scenarios created provide an insight into possible forms of communication between consumers and retailers until the year 2025.
In a project with international professionals the University of Applied Science FH CAMPUS 02, the IMG GmbH and ScMI created seven scenarios for the future of intellectual property. Additionally, they developed strategic options for medium-sized technology companies.
How can Germany, due to changing conditions, adapt its industrial strategy which managed to lead them successfully through the financial crisis? In a working paper the central forces of change are demonstrated as well as challenges and alternative futures outlined.
To be preapared for different changs in the coach-travel industry, the Bus-department of MAN Truck & Bus AG initiated a project with several experts from the automotive area, further industries and representatives from related associations to develop alternative future scenarios.
AGRAVIS Raiffeisen AGhas developed and assessed six scenarios for the future of the Agribusiness in Germany. These alternative futures have been presented and discussed in the management team and additionally published in an internal scenario study.
On the occasion of the ANUGA 2011, the German association of food trade (BVL) and the Cologne trade fair (Koelnmesse) initiated, together with a team of experts, scenarios concerning the future of our groceries and published them in a scenario study.
As a think tank and service provider for the government, the Innovation Centre in Lower Saxony, together with ScMI, created scenarios for the future of the “healthcare industry”. The future scenarios, which are demonstrated in a scenario study, should stimulate thought processes and discussions.
In the first half of 2010 the first online scenario project was implemented in the XING-group “Szenario-Technik und strategische Früherkennung im Zukunftsmanagement” (“Scenario technique and strategic early detection in future management”). As a result, six scenarios were created concerning the future of social networking via the internet.
How could football look like in 2025: national sport or a billion euro business? Champions League or substitutes’ bench? Six scenarios describe different development trends of the soccer environment in Germany.
In the face of multiple uncertainties, ScMI has developed six scenarios for the future of Central Eastern and Eastern Europe. These scenarios consider the development of the current EU member states and the rest of Eastern Europe as well as specific regions such as the Balkans and the Caucasus.
In contrast to physical products and classic services, “Intangible Web Goods” such as MP3-Files or e-learning offers were previously available free of charge on the Internet. Five scenarios showed how this might change in the future.
In collaboration with representatives of the retail industry, the branded goods industry, media as well as representatives of the IT and advertising industry, EHI developed visions for trade marketing in 2015 through an intersectional scenario project. You can find a follow-up study conducted in 2013 here.
As part of a three-day scenario conference, 26 representatives from various centers of environmental education systematically analyzed and structured future trends, summarized them and created, in total, six scenarios representing the environmental education in Germany.
All the stakeholders in the tourism industry – from travel agents, hotels and transport companies to leisure time facilities are affected by a major structural change. Five scenarios show various potential directions.
Media offerings in Germany have risen considerably over the past few years. Six scenarios show to what extent the so-called “new media” substitutes the traditional “mass media”, whilst also showing to what extent they are complementing each other.
Whether food scandals, obesity or genetically modified food: topics that deal with our nutrition are published in the news on an almost daily basis. ScMI shows six possible developments through six scenarios. Here You can find a thematically similar study conducted in 2011.
ScMI has analyzed the scenarios developed by many renowned institutes of economic and of future research and connected them by using the Szenario-ManagementTM approach. The results are seven comprehensive scenarios which summarize the current state of knowledge.
What role do various companies play within our economic future – from small family businesses to global corporations – employees to consumers? Four scenarios from a project run by ScMI provided some insightful possibilities.
Ist der Corporate-Finance-Markt für Kreditinstitute ein Markt mit Perspektiven oder steckt er in der Sackgasse? Diese Frage hängt von verschiedenen Faktoren ab, deren zukünftige Entwicklungsoptionen ermittelt und in sechs Szenarien vorausgedacht wurden.
The five scenarios about the future of the European regions were developed during the 1st ScMI-Partner-Conference in autumn of 2002. At the conference ScMI brought together its network partners plus further experts from even European countries.
In the slipstream of big fusions, there are signs of changes which strongly affect the image of the automotive industry. The central question is how consumers will buy new vehicles in the future. Six alternative scenarios were created on this issue in cooperation with the Fraunhofer Application Center for logistics-oriented business economics.
Following the events of September the 11th it became clear that even in the aviation industry a stagnation or a decline in growth can occur. Therefore, ScMI has created five scenarios concerning the future of civil aviation which were evaluated by selected experts from airlines, airports and aviation suppliers.
The development from municipalities and regions to modern service organizations is a central issue. Cities, municipalities and districts have to act more and more strategically. This scenario report is based on a pilot project “Kommune 2005”.
