In their contribution „In Zukünften denken“ (“Thinking in futures”) to changeX, Alexander Fink and Andreas Siebe deal with the possibilities of future management.

changeX is an online-medium dedicated to ideas about the future and innovative development in economy and technology. changeX publishes the series “Zukunft der Zukunft” (“The future’s future”) to debate how to deal with future.

The contribution of ScMI AG shows, why future management that only is based on prognosis and trends oftentimes fails to cope with major disruptive events. Simply projecting past (prognosis) or current (trends) developments into the future will yield only one alternative. Consequently, not all future options will be considered and taken into account when deciding about the strategic positioning.

Szenario-MangementTM allows, widening the view: A scenario is a consistent combination of alternative development options. Together with other scenarios, a description and understanding of the map of the future will be possible.

The full article (only in German) is available here.