The consequences of this development are that more and more seniors would require cost- and time-intensive medical care. In addition to this, the number of contributors to the health insurance funds decreases further. Where the changes are taking us and whether the negative consequences are to be stopped with the help of certain factors are two extremely important questions for patients, doctors and health care managers.

ScMI has used its internationally acclaimed method Scenario management in order to design the possible futures of the health care in Germany. The final result of the research and the evaluation of key factors are 4 possible scenarios, which take into account not only the developments that seem most likely to happen from today’s point of view but also alternative perspectives that do not appear in the contemporary forecasts.

As the number of scenarios shows, there is not only one possible future on which decision takers should concentrate. This is the reason why we understand our scenarios as a tool to sensitize strategic planners and policy maker in the health care sector for future decision trends and to facilitate their orientation among diverse options.