Scenario-Management for cities and municipalities

Cities and municipalities are facing – not only, but also because of the strong influx - more diverse future questions: How will different outside influences develop?

What prospects and risks is this creating? How should the community be like in the future? What latitudes will result from this - and how can we use them?

In the light of several uncertainties innovative municipalities fall back on the instrument of future scenarios. This allows different potential future developments to be thought ahead in order to use them for strategic and political discussions. This is often developed in an open process where besides politics and administration, representatives from companies, Science and civil societies are also integrated.

By means of a guideline ScMI AG gives together with the ‘German Association of Towns and municipalities’ (DStGB) and the federation of cooperatives an overview of the opportunities regarding future scenarios. How are scenarios developed? What one should pay attention to? How is the step taken from scenarios to commune’s decisions? The opportunities are shown through several examples:


  • Thus, the City of Minden could work out a future-robust concept for the development of sport facilities on the basis of environmental and municipal scenarios which is embedded in a corresponding model.
  • The district of Hameln-Pyrmont was used by Scenario-Management in order to develop different options for action during a scenario-conference and to evaluate in a way that the need for change became clear.
  • Bosch as the world’s leading technology group was facing the question what impact urbanization could have on their own business environment. Therefore, six scenarios about ‘Smart City’ were developed.

The understanding of the methodology is deepened through scenarios about the future of rural areas in Germany which are published additionally in the scenario study by the ScMI AG. The guideline for scenario-management for cities and municipalities appeared as a publisher’s supplement ‘Stadt und Gemeinde INTERAKTIV’ 11712_2015 and can be purchased as DStGB-documentation No. 134 from WINKLER&STENZEL publishing.

In case of further questions regarding the use of scenarios municipal, regional and public environments, we are gladly at your disposal.

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