The impact of the Corona pandemic on the future of the food industry
The Corona pandemic radically changed social and economic life in the short term. At the same time, the effects on individual segments of the food industry were and are very different. Therefore, the implications of Corona pandemic for the future of the food industry were examined in more detail in this study.
As a basis for the work, it was possible to draw on the results of the scenario study "The Future of the Food Industry - How Will We Eat in 2030?", which was prepared in 2017 by the Competence Center for Nutrition (KErn) together with ScMI AG. In it, an interdisciplinary team developed eight scenarios describing how the food industry could change in the coming decade. Two specific questions were taken up for the Corona study that has now been carried out.
© KErn, ScMI AG
1. How will the Corona pandemic change the food industry?
The first part of the study shows how the food industry and the various players are affected by the pandemic in their economic activities. To this end, a systematic process was used to design post-Corona scenarios that describe possible characteristics of the food economy around the year 2022/23.
© KErn
The newly developed seven post-Corona scenarios for the food industry impressively show that the crisis can primarily be a danger, but not least also an opportunity. The Corona pandemic can also be a driver of trends that are already recognizable today, for example, towards regionality and sustainability. In the second part of the study, experts in the industry discuss what they expect to happen in the future.
2. How do the future prospects of the food industry change due to the Corona crisis?
In the second part of the study, the assessment of long-term scenarios (developed in 2017) was updated. By comparing the results from 2017 with the new assessments in the context of a Corona stress test, it became clear what changes there have been in recent years and how long-term expectations have changed as a result of the Corona pandemic.
© KErn
It shows that the Corona crisis and other developments over the last three years have significantly changed the assessment of the expected future. Scenarios 6 and 7 in particular are seen as more likely, resulting in a greater emphasis on regionality. A stronger influence of the public sector on our diet is also assumed here. There have also been striking changes in the extended expectation space. For example, export scenario 4 is assessed as significantly less likely than three years ago. This could be interpreted as an indication that traditional business models in the food industry are coming under pressure.
The detailed results of the study, in which several companies in the sector participated, can be downloaded here here (german edition) free of charge.