New Horizons 2045 – Missions for Germany

What does a climate-neutral Germany look like? What does a socially just future look like? What kind of country do we want to be in 2045? Together with 50 futurologists as well as ScMI AG and foresightlab, the D2030 initiative has developed seven desirable visions for Germany's future and derived the conflicting goals of tomorrow as well as initial recommendations for policy-makers. The results are summarized in the study “New Horizons 2045 – Missions for Germany”.

Based on the “New Horizons” scenarios of the predecessor project “Germany 2030”, the D2030 initiative has extended the time horizon to 2045 in a new project and focused on possible disruptive and positive visions of the future. The year 2045 was chosen because the German government has decided to have transformed Germany into a climate-neutral country by then. The initial question was therefore: “What futures could we want?”

The scenarios were developed as part of an open foresight project with the involvement of a scenario team of around 50 people, which was steered by a core team comprising Dr. Alexander Fink and Hanna Rammig from ScMI AG. The participants included numerous futurologists as well as experts from science, business, administration and civil society. As part of the process, there were participatory public events and online dialogs in which other interested parties could take part in the dialogue.

Seven target scenarios:

1# Green Growth People are willing to change, but shy away from radical breaks. Politicians are taking on a leadership role and using missions to drive the transformation towards a “green industry” that will become a global flagship. Participation, consensus and balance are important.

2# Sustainable System Change Germany dares to turn away from growth and competition and focuses on radical transformation: climate protection is given priority. Regional value creation, basic income, changing lifestyles and new infrastructures characterize the system change.

3# Radical Compromises Germany succeeds in transforming itself into a sovereign economy that is successful on the global markets beyond traditional growth. Politics orchestrates jointly developed missions that bring together an opportunity-oriented and diverse society.

4# Ecoliberal Transformation In a world characterized by digital value creation, Germany succeed at the transformation to a post-industrial economic model. The basis for this is social openness as well as individual and entrepreneurial freedom. Politics focuses on setting the framework.

5# Techno-Optimism Supported by visionary companies and DeepTech innovation, Germany has successfully transferred its traditional strength in industrial value creation to the digital world. Green technology leaps are the key to solving the climate crisis.

6# Alternative Stabilities Germany is facing up to global and social realities: politics are focusing on what is possible through consensus – including climate and transformation. Personal responsibility is on the rise and civil societal structures are taking on numerous tasks.

7# Safety First The social center remains strong and strives for security. Prosperity, social balance and stability are priority goals of an actively regulating policy - more than transformation and climate protection. Strong core industries remain the basis.

The complete study is available for Download in German.

For further information on using the scenarios in your own project work and the possibility of lectures and presentations, please do not hesitate to contact us.