The New Global
We know and discuss the "New Normal" - the changes in our daily lives after COVID19. But what will the world economy and globalization look like in the post-covid-era? Which powers will rise or fall? What new global architectures might emerge? In short, what might a "New Global" look like?
Eight scenarios for the future of the global world order
In the slipstream of the Corona pandemic, changes are emerging - in some cases familiar trends, in others new structural breaks: Will China enter the 2020s with a tailwind - and how will its rivalry with the USA and its relationship with the West change? What position will Europe take in the new world order? Will globalization continue, will it change - or will we see deglobalization with new regional powers? What role will climate change, digitalization and global imbalances play? These are just some of the pressing questions to which there are no clear answers. Even more than before, the future of our world is not only complex but also highly uncertain.
Based on the 2020-developed Post-Covid scenarios, we took a closer look at the global environment with a global panel of experts. In four online workshops, a total of eight so-called "New Global" scenarios were developed. They range from Western domination to a global power shift to Asia, and from multilateral cooperation to full-scale global conflict. Non-state actors and political alliances also play a special role. The scenarios are visualized in a map of the future.
To better assess the relevance of the individual scenarios, the scenarios were evaluated in an expert survey. The survey of more than 200 experts from 65 countries initially shows a very high level of uncertainty, as almost all future scenarios can be regarded as relevant. However, an overall critical assessment of the global situation is also apparent, as the near-present and expected continuity scenario "New value blocs" is at the same time classified as a critical future.
The full report can be downloaded here.
Feedback from the New Global Scenarioteam:
Our partners in the New Global-Scenario-process: