Post-Covid - World Economy, Power shift and Global Architectures

The New Global

We know and discuss the "New Normal" - the changes in our daily lives after COVID19. But what will the world economy and globalization look like in the post-covid-era? Which powers will rise or fall? What new global architectures might emerge? In short, what might a "New Global" look like?

Eight scenarios for the future of the global world order

In the slipstream of the Corona pandemic, changes are emerging - in some cases familiar trends, in others new structural breaks: Will China enter the 2020s with a tailwind - and how will its rivalry with the USA and its relationship with the West change? What position will Europe take in the new world order? Will globalization continue, will it change - or will we see deglobalization with new regional powers? What role will climate change, digitalization and global imbalances play? These are just some of the pressing questions to which there are no clear answers. Even more than before, the future of our world is not only complex but also highly uncertain.

Based on the 2020-developed Post-Covid scenarios, we took a closer look at the global environment with a global panel of experts. In four online workshops, a total of eight so-called "New Global" scenarios were developed. They range from Western domination to a global power shift to Asia, and from multilateral cooperation to full-scale global conflict. Non-state actors and political alliances also play a special role. The scenarios are visualized in a map of the future.

 

 

 

 

 

#1 | US rules – Deceptive comfort under the Western umbrella
#1 | US rules – Deceptive comfort under the Western umbrella (Scenario 1): This scenario appears, if the United States continue or resume to actively fulfill their leading role in the world. More information
#2 | Silicon world – Emergence of new glocal communities
#2 | Silicon world – Emergence of new glocal communities (Scenario 2): This scenario appears, if global tech companies with a high level of social responsibility enjoy far greater trust than traditional, political players. More information
#3 | Global awareness – Sustainable transformation through cooperation
#3 | Global awareness – Sustainable transformation through cooperation (Scenario 3): This scenario appears, if global awareness is so pronounced that virtually all major nations cooperate and, above all, establish a planetary climate policy. More information
#4 | Olympic rings – Geo-regional pillars dominate
#4 | Olympic rings – Geo-regional pillars dominate (Scenario 4): This scenario appears, if the world is divided into several spheres of influence, each of which is characterized by specific approaches to solving problems, but which also learn from each other at the same time. More information
#5 | China rules – New role models from the East
#5 | China rules – New role models from the East (Scenario 5): This scenario appears, if China becomes the clear leading world power, whose hegemonic influence is widely accepted in politics and business. More information
#6 | New value blocs – The cold war is back
#6 | New value blocs – The cold war is back (Scenario 6): This scenario appears, if two blocs and systems, the Western democratic and the Chinese authoritarian, are increasingly in conflict with each other. More information
#7 | Conflictual uncertainties – Digital plutocracy and broad decline
#7 | Conflictual uncertainties – Digital plutocracy and broad decline (Scenario 7): This scenario appears, if hardly any global cooperation is possible and states and groups always face each other in various kinds of conflicts (while a small global elite is able to avoid these conflicts). More information
#8 | Neo-fragmentation – End of trust and public governance
#8 | Neo-fragmentation – End of trust and public governance (Scenario 8): This scenario appears, if, in an individualized world, people lose confidence in increasingly weak nation states and social cohesion erodes. More information

 

To better assess the relevance of the individual scenarios, the scenarios were evaluated in an expert survey. The survey of more than 200 experts from 65 countries initially shows a very high level of uncertainty, as almost all future scenarios can be regarded as relevant. However, an overall critical assessment of the global situation is also apparent, as the near-present and expected continuity scenario "New value blocs" is at the same time classified as a critical future.

The full report can be downloaded here.

 

Feedback from the New Global Scenarioteam:

 

 

 

 

Our partners in the New Global-Scenario-process:

 

 

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