The future of the food industry

On behalf of the Bavarian State Ministry of Food, Agriculture and Forestry, the Nutrition Cluster, the Nutrition Competence Centre (KErn) and a 17-member panel of experts drew up and evaluated scenarios for the future of the food industry and presented them at the "Future Days Lebensmittel".


During the scenario development, the following core uncertainties for the future were examined:
1. to what extent will policy intervene in the food environment in the future?
2. how innovative will the food industry be in the future?
3. to what extent will global free trade and digitisation shape the food industry in the future?
4. what significance will future values, regionality and quality have in the food industry?
5. to what extent will individual customer behaviour lead to market-driven innovation in the future?
6. to what extent can the food industry drive innovation on its own initiative?


The scenarios are supposed to provide possible answers to the above (and other) questions. A total of eight scenarios were developed and described in the study.


The Efficiency Scenario (Scenario 1)
Short-term pursuit of profit promotes global standardization
The Disruption-Scenario (Scenario 2)
Global industry innovations for rational nutritional progress
The Digitalisation-Scenario (Scenario 3)
Global change in markets leads to perceived diversity
The Export-Scenario (Scenario 4)
National innovation champions in a connected world
The Global & Fair-Scenario (Scenario 5)
Global flows of goods behind regional and valuable products
The regional Diversity-Scenario (Scenario 6)
Value-conscious consumers drive regionalised offers
The Abstinence-Scenario (Scenario 7)
Consumption refusal leads to simplification
The Supply-Scenario (Scenario 8)
The end of experience and value orientation


The detailed study can be downloaded here .

Klingenderstr. 10-14
33100 Paderborn

+49 (0) 5251 150 570

+49 (0) 5251 150 579