The future of winter tourism
An industry in transition
Traditional ideas of snow-covered mountains, classic ski resorts and winter vacation paradises are now under strong pressure to adapt. The effects of climate change are particularly noticeable in the Bavarian Alpine regions, which is having a significant impact on the future of winter tourism. Snow reliability is becoming increasingly unpredictable and the winter season is constantly shortening. At the same time, social needs are changing and technological innovations are opening up new opportunities. How can the industry respond to these changes and what new prospects are there for winter tourism in Bavaria?
Time for a scenario process
Exciting questions about the future were the focus of an interdisciplinary scenario team made up of 31 experts from various areas of Bavarian winter tourism. In several workshops, the scenario team defined connections and interactions between climate change and winter tourism and identified 21 key factors as central drivers for the future development of winter tourism in Bavaria. These key factors were examined in a detailed network analysis and transferred into several alternative future projections. The projections were then combined into seven coherent scenarios that depict possible futures for winter tourism up to 2050. The scenarios cover a broad spectrum, from snow-based winter offers to sustainable, year-round tourism concepts. Social, economic and ecological dimensions structure the map of the future. The future scenarios developed provide a valuable basis for supporting strategic decisions and leading winter tourism in Bavaria into the future in a resilient and sustainable manner.
What scenarios emerge from the map?
- #1 Frozen between yesterday and today: The industry remains stuck in old ways of thinking, the lack of snow leads to guests changing destinations without long-term transformation measures being taken.
- #2 Commercialized Winter Wonderland: Investments in upgrades for climate adaptation and a technologically generated winter environment ensure the attractiveness of winter sports, with sustainability playing a subordinate role.
- #3 Goodbye to snow-based Winter tourism: Winter tourism is losing popularity, snow-independent leisure activities are gaining in importance.
- #4 Year-round Eventization: As the classic winter is losing relevance, the industry is focusing on diverse, snow-independent year-round experiences with an event character.
- #5 Climate-neutral Snow Experiences: High-tech solutions create a sustainable “winter wonderland” and address the high social demand for sustainability.
- #6 The New Winter: Winter tourism becomes part of a year-round, sustainably transformed tourism offering in which winter orientation and snow-bound no longer play a central role.
- #7 Winter beyond Commercialization: Tourism is specifically decelerated, geared towards resource-conserving year-round offers and focuses on sustainability and recreation.
The German study is available for Download.