Scenarios describe a “map of the future”

The "map of the future" naturally raises the question about where we are currently on it and in which direction the real situation is heading. With the Scenario Radar, both customers of ScMI AG and external scenario users have the opportunity to track their visions of the future.

Three perspectives in scenario monitoring 

Within the scenario monitoring process, the individual key factors and projections of a project –  and consequently also the single scenarios – are assessed and analyzed concerning three perspectives:

  • Current situation: How similar are the future scenarios compared to the current situation? Which pictures can already be seen today – and which picture of the future would be revolutionary changes?
  • Expected future: How similar are the scenarios to the expected future? This consequently leads to the question which scenarios are the most likely ones – based on todays’ expert knowledge.
  • Desired future: How close are the scenarios to the desired futures of your company or organization? Which scenarios would give us tailwind – and which futures are rather critical or inconvenient?

Diverse forms of application and analysis

The key factors and projections are evaluated by a defined team of experts, which can be grouped according to regional or functional criteria. The evaluations can be gathered through Microsoft-Office-based questionnaires or the web, imported and summarized. The analysis of the assessments  provides results on three levels:

Perspective analysis
Each of the above-mentioned perspectives can be independently analyzed. Based on the assessment, three complementary future images emerge, which clearly describe the current situation, the desired future as well as the expected future in the eyes of the involved team. The analysis of similarities and differences of these images allows to identify qualitative opportunities and threats as well as expected stabilities and future trends within the external environment.
Key factor analysis
The key factor perspective delivers a detailed analysis on the behavior and characteristics of all single issues, that have been discussed during the scenario process and that form the building blocks of the scenarios. For each key factor the expected future changes and trends are identified as well as resulting opportunities and threats. Based on this analysis factors can be characterized by their level of dynamic or form of impact on the organization.
Scenario monitoring
Scenario monitoring is the heart of the evaluation process. The gathered assessments of the key factors are aggregated on the scenario level. This reveals how close the developed scenarios are to the current situation as well as the expected and desired future described by the experts. This allows to judge on the likeliness of the scenarios and shows which pictures of the future would form desirable visions in the eyes of the organization. The results are visualized within the  "map of the future". By doing so, possible development paths can be identified, leading the way from today into the future.

In addition, general evaluation patterns can be analyzed on a higher-level to gain insights on the mindset of the scenario team. In particular, optimism about the future, the expected degree of dynamics in the environment and the extent of the organization's desire for change or stability are addressed. All of the evaluation formats described can be created by the Scenario Radar and optionally exported to MS PowerPoint.

Conditions and pricing

The conditions for licensing the software are based on the area of application and the type of license model selected. With regard to the application, we offer specific conditions for companies and educational institutions. In addition, a dedicated partner program is available for anyone willing to integrate the Scenario ManagementTM approach into their own consulting portfolio.

Concerning the licensing, we essentially provide our
software for unlimited time. However, the project-related provision of our tool is also possible. We are certain that together we will find the right solution
for you. To receive your individual offer, simply contact us.
We would be happy to introduce the Scenario-Radar to you personally.

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