Three perspectives on scenario monitoring
In the context of scenario monitoring the particular key factors and projections – and consequently also the single scenarios- are analyzed concerning three criteria:
- Compared to the present: How close are the future scenarios located compared to the current situation? Which changes are already foreseeable – and which future images would be revolutionary changes?
- Expected future: How nearby are the scenarios to the expected future? This consequently leads to the question which scenarios are the most possible ones – from todays’ view.
- Desired future: How nearby are the scenarios to the desired futures of the companies or organizations? Which scenarios would give us tailwind –and which futures are rather critical or inconvenient?
Diverse forms of application and evaluation
A defined group of evaluators, which might be composed for regional or functional reasons, evaluate the key factors and projections. The evaluations can be captured, imported and consolidated on basis of excel surveys. The evaluation happens on three different levels:
Complementary to those possibilities, a superior assessment of evaluation patterns can be done. Especially the future optimism, the expected level of environmental dynamics as well as the organizations desire for changes or stability will be addressed.
The described evaluation formats can be created with the Scenario-Radar and derived optionally in a MS PowerPoint file.