Three perspectives on scenario monitoring 

In the context of scenario monitoring the particular key factors and projections – and consequently also the single scenarios- are analyzed concerning three criteria:

  • Compared to the present: How close are the future scenarios located compared to the current situation? Which changes are already foreseeable – and which future images would be revolutionary changes?
  • Expected future: How nearby are the scenarios to the expected future? This consequently leads to the question which scenarios are the most possible ones – from todays’ view.
  • Desired future: How nearby are the scenarios to the desired futures of the companies or organizations? Which scenarios would give us tailwind –and which futures are rather critical or inconvenient?

Diverse forms of application and evaluation

A defined group of evaluators, which might be composed for regional or functional reasons, evaluate the key factors and projections. The evaluations can be captured, imported and consolidated on basis of excel surveys. The evaluation happens on three different levels:

Perspective Analysis
Moreover, each of the above mentioned perspectives can be completely independent analyzed. Resulting from the evaluation, three complementary future images emerge, which substantially describe the current situation, the desired image as well as the expected image. The investigation of similarities and differences of these images enable the derivation of qualitative chances, risks and the changes in stabilities. 
Key factor analysis
Key factors or projections, which are part of single scenario components, are analyzed within the context of a “micro watch”. Stabilities as well as the expected changes will be worked out for every key factor. This allows deriving trend statements concerning particular groups of themes within the scenarios.
Scenario monitoring
In this step, a matching of which scenarios fit best to the expected or desired future will be done. Resulting from the comparison with the imminent scenarios, expected or desired changes emerge. These findings will be visualized in a “map of the future” in order to illustrate possible development paths. 

Complementary to those possibilities, a superior assessment of evaluation patterns can be done. Especially the future optimism, the expected level of environmental dynamics as well as the  organizations desire for changes or stability will be addressed.

The described evaluation formats can be created with the Scenario-Radar and derived optionally in a MS PowerPoint file.

 

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