Scenario study about the future of personnel development

Scenario study about the future of personnel development

Demography and skills shortage, globalization and location quality, digitalization and technological change. How will the personnel development will look like in the future with respect to the uncertainties? And how will it work together with other functions and external further training opportunities?

Such questions are not only for decision-makers of the personnel development and human resource department of interest; they also relate to the executive and management boards who decide on the future role of their ‘HR officer’. Will their work be more strategic and future-oriented or reactive and deficit-oriented? What priority and reputation will personnel development have- and which budget will be available?

A clear future picture cannot be formulated for personnel development – the environments of the company and beyond are too complex and uncertain. In order not to drive ‘by sight’, it is reasonable to consider different options. This takes place in the form of alternative future scenarios. By the present scenario study six coherent and consistent future pictures were developed for the personnel development in Germany. They give six insights into possible futures which can be differentiated according to three core dimensions: the level of activity of the personnel work, the contrast between internal personnel development and external staffing as well as the dynamic of the environmental factors.

These six scenarios build the ‘geographical map of the future’ to which executives of the personnel development orient themselves as well as providers of further training – and which can be used as a basis for future-robust decisions. The results have been incorporated into a current scenario study of the ScMI AG.

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